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White House trade advisor Navarro does a U-turn; so do markets

The US Dollar has weakened overnight. The anticipation of a second stimulus package is keeping the USD under pressure. While the EU is finding it difficult to stitch together a fiscal stimulus package, the US is likely to follow the USD 2.2tn CARES act up to with another USD 1tn or even larger package.

The package, which has been approved in the House of Representatives (HEROES Act), is most likely to be rejected by the Senate.

However, with presidential elections around the corner, an alternative package is almost certain. The Senate is likely to discuss the package once it reconvenes post its recess in mid-July.

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White House chief advisor Peter Navarro commented that “the trade deal with China was off, causing the Dow futures to plummet by 600pts in the early Asian session.”

However, he later retracted the statement and said that the deal was intact. The Dow staged an instant V-shaped recovery. USDCNH had spiked to 7.09 but that too retreated to 7.06 after the comments were retracted.

The Indonesian Rupiah is on course to weaken for the fourth consecutive session. The Rupee is likely to open around 75.85 and trade a 75.65-76.05 range. Month-end exports could cap upside. The Nifty is likely to trade with a positive bias.

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